David Drake

Thursday, June 30, 2005
The Silver Lining in Iran
The New York Times
Abbas Milani

The hottest book in Iran these days is Bill Clinton's "My Life." There are three unauthorized translations on the market and at least two more on the way, Iranian newspapers report. By all accounts, a George W. Bush memoir might do just as well. And that is only the most recent indication of the overwhelmingly favorable disposition of the Iranian population toward the United States.

The same newspapers that reported the Clinton book sales last weekend also covered, with much fanfare, President-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's defiant attitude toward the United States at his first press conference, on Sunday. Mr. Ahmadinejad stepped on a painting of the American flag as he went to vote. He dismissed the idea that Iran needed to build any relationship with the United States and vowed to continue Iran's nuclear program, which Washington opposes. As for the haughty Europeans, Mr. Ahmadinejad proclaimed, they must leave their ivory towers and speak to the Iranians as equals.

In fact, it is Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and a cabal of conservative mullahs and Revolutionary Guards who have absconded to ivory towers with their dogma and greed for power. Ignoring serious signs of crisis, they masterminded Mr. Ahmadinejad's victory. According to three of Mr. Ahmadinejad's opponents, members of the Revolutionary Guards and the basij militia, who together number in the millions, were told whom to vote for and to bring up to 10 family members along with them to the polls. The same sources allege that millions of dollars from public coffers were distributed among militia members in order to bring out the hard-line vote.

Nevertheless, contrary to the common perception, this election is not so much a sign of the Iranian system's strength as of its weakness. Last week's presidential election is only the most recent example of the tactical wisdom and strategic foolishness of Iran's ruling mullahs. All the reformist candidates, particularly Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, as well as the approximately 70 percent of the electorate who voted for reformists or boycotted the election, sought above all to limit Ayatollah Khamenei's increasing despotism. Rather than accepting this possible outcome, Ayatollah Khamenei and his allies made a grab for absolute power. In the process they may have unwittingly opened the door for democracy - because their hardball tactics have created the most serious rift in the ranks of ruling mullahs since the inception of the Islamic Republic. The experience of emerging democracies elsewhere has shown that dissension within ruling circles has often presaged the fall of authoritarianism.

Mr. Ahmadinejad's presidency will force a crisis not only in Iran's political establishment but also, and even more important, in its economy. Only a huge infusion of capital and expertise, along with open markets, can even begin to address the country's economic problems, which include high unemployment, a rapidly increasing labor force, cronyism and endemic corruption.

Such an infusion requires, more than anything, security and the rule of law. It requires a fairly elected president who inspires the confidence of investors and governments around the world. Instead, through a dubious election, Iran's kingmakers propelled a man into the presidency who has publicly opined that the stock market is a form of gambling with no place in a genuine Islamic society.

Not surprisingly, Mr. Ahmadinejad's election brought about the single greatest plunge in the Iranian stock market's history. The day is already known as Black Saturday, and the president-elect has been scrambling to undo the damage since. Indeed, Mr. Ahmadinejad hastened to promise that he would not shut the stock market, and the intelligence agencies set about "proving" that rumors of the market's closing were a conspiracy of the enemies of the state.

Instead of finding a sound strategic solution to Iran's economic woes, Ayatollah Khamenei and his allies have trotted out the old populist slogans of revolutionary justice, economic autarky and pseudosocialism. When that formula fails, as it did in the 1980's even with the charisma of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to help it along, the mullahs will be denied their last bastion of support among the country's poor, whose piety and deprivation they have long exploited. In the short term, the right wing has scored a major victory. In the long run, they have helped bring Iran one step closer to democracy.

Abbas Milani is director of the Iranian studies program at Stanford and co-director of the Iran Democracy Project at the Hoover Institution.

// posted by David Drake @ 6:17 PM 0 comments

An online club of street racers, streetracing.dk, said on their website that they were negotiating with local authorities in Aalborg to establish a racetrack for enthusiasts. The club had promised not to organise races in the city's streets while the negotiations took place.

Another racing club, Street-X.dk, did not seem as set on a peaceful solution. In a message posted on the club's website, a street-X.dk spokesman said the club would not participate in such attempts to legalise the races.

'The negotiations sound ok … but you can forget everything about a 'truce' while you negotiate unless you let us 100 percent in on what you're doing. We drive in illegal races and plan to go on doing so,' wrote the Street-X.dk spokesman on the club's website.

// posted by David Drake @ 6:17 PM 0 comments

As a filmmaker, I'm not interested in 9/11. Because, if you look at the big picture, the long view of things, it's too small, history overwhelms it. The history of the world is like: he kills me, I kill him. Only with different cosmetics and different castings: so in 2001 some fanatics killed some Americans, and now some Americans are killing some Iraqis. And in my childhood, some Nazis killed Jews. And now, some Jewish people and some Palestinians are killing each other. Political questions, if you go back thousands of years, are ephemeral, not important. History is the same thing over and over again.

Spiegel: So, do you think is [sic] sort of useless when someone like Michael Moore makes a documentary with strong political overtones?

Allen: Michael Moore delivered a powerful and successful piece of documentary with Fharenheit [sic] 9/11. But the problem is that most of the people who liked it were people who thought like him. Me for example. But, even Moore didn't manage to influence the other side. We tested that with polls. It's a hopeless case.

// posted by David Drake @ 1:40 PM 0 comments

"There is no such thing as a chemical imbalance."

"You don't know the history of psychiatry. I do."

"Gil Spencer, a columnist for the Delaware County Times reported contact from former Scientologists and others following a previous column critical of Scientology.

"Astra Woodcraft grew up in the Church of Scientology and doesn't have much nice to say about it. She wrote me after reading Sunday's column about celebrity Scientologist Tom Cruise and his interview on 'Larry King Live.' 'I was raised in Scientology my entire life and was able to get out almost six years ago when I was 19,' she wrote. Both her father and mother were Scientologists. So were her grandmother, brother and sister. Today,she, her father and sister are out. The rest of the family is still in.

'They obviously are allowed no contact with us,' she says. "'I was forced to work there full-time from the age of 14 until I was 19 when I escaped."

// posted by David Drake @ 2:34 PM 0 comments

Of the various remarks for which Dean has been pilloried lately, Democrats were most vociferous in distancing themselves from this one. The reason was simple: The sort of folk Dean held up to contempt are the main funders of the Democratic Party, too. Thanks to New York Times tax reporter David Cay Johnston's book Perfectly Legal, we know a little more about the composition of what he terms the "political donor class."

// posted by David Drake @ 5:29 PM 0 comments

"You know, I've got one of these wonderful ideas that women should be all dressed in white like all the other domestic appliances," Ecclestone added.

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Putin Sidelined as Oil Flows West from the Stans
(BUSINESS) 2005.05.26

A new oil pipeline gives Russia the boot and may help the US and Europe cut down their dependence on Middle East oil. And, Germany's left wing Social Democrat Oscar Lafontaine is back with more pipe dreams. Plus, why June bugs are better for you than steak and an update of the ever-crumbling attempt to revamp the nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.

On Wednesday, the $3.6 billion Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline is scheduled to open with a ceremony in Azerbaijan. We hope it's a big one. The 1,750 km pipeline has been 11 years in the making and does the once unthinkable -- bypasses Russia in linking the rich light crude reserves in Azerbaijan and, later, Kazakhstan and other neighboring countries, with the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea. From there the oil can be exported conveniently to world markets. And all without a single fingerprint from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The pipeline is owned by a consortium led by energy giant British Petroleum, the biggest foreign investor in Azerbaijan, which holds a 30% stake, and includes the Azerbaijani state company Socar as well as Amerada Hess, ConocoPhillips, Eni, Inpex, Staoil and Unocal.

Source: service.spiegel.de

// posted by David Drake @ 10:11 AM 0 comments

China is rapidly losing manufacturing jobs in the same industries where the U.S. and other major countries have seen jobs disappear, such as textiles. Matthew Spiegelman, Economist at The Conference Board and co-author of the study, notes: The U.S. lost 202,000 textile jobs between 1995 and 2002, a tremendous decline by any measure. But China lost far more jobs in this sector - 1.8 million. All told, 26 of China's 38 major industries registered job losses between 1995 and 2002.

// posted by David Drake @ 2:23 PM 0 comments

"A thousand-dollar-a-plate fundraising breakfast..."

""I was just honored to meet her," said a teacher. "She was very natural and sincere. She posed with the kids for pictures. I just think she's a very special person."

"She was in Minnesota, she's heading to Wisconsin, she went to the Seventh Day Adventists religious convention (*) the other day. You've just gotta track it. She's ready. She is running hard for President," said [Tim] Russert.

Just after noon, another fundraiser at the Buffalo Convention Center, courtesy of the Erie County Democratic Committee. Cameras and reporters not allowed.

Why no press? "Y'know, that's just the way we wanted it," says Democratic Chairman Len Lenihan.

"You would have liked us in yourself, I'll bet," says Kellman.

"Y'know what," he responds, "I think we made the right decision in closing it."

Several of those attending told us they didn't know why we were kept out. In any case, if Senator Clinton jumps into the Presidential race officially, she be [sic] followed by lots of reporters and camera people wanting to be whereever she is.

// posted by David Drake @ 6:50 PM 0 comments

"...what caused her collapse 15 years ago remained a mystery. The autopsy and post-mortem investigation found no proof that she had an eating disorder..."

Labels: Terri Schiavo

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SANTA MARIA, Calif. (AP) - Michael Jackson has been found not guilty on all 10 counts in his child molestation trial.

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Labels: Report Cards

// posted by David Drake @ 3:33 PM 0 comments

The governor wants voters to consider ballot measures that would impose a cap on state spending, redraw legislative districts and increase the time it takes teachers to gain tenure. Perhaps even more important to rival Democrats, however, is an initiative promoted by Schwarzenegger supporters that would restrict the use of union dues for political purposes. If approved, it would dry up a key source of campaign money for Democrats.

The governor is expected to call for the election during a televised announcement from his Capitol office at 5:01 p.m. He is forging ahead despite a recent poll that shows a majority of voters are opposed to a special election, estimated to cost anywhere from $45 million to $80 million.

Schwarzenegger has described the looming campaign as "the great battle." He argues that the issues he is bringing to the voters are critical to fixing the state's ongoing budget problems and breaking the grip that public employee unions hold on the Capitol.

"This is a referendum on the future of California," said Rusty Hammer, president of the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce. "Are we going to fundamentally reform the state? That's the issue.

// posted by David Drake @ 2:47 PM 0 comments

Lesson No. 1: A wise father teaches a daughter to avoid any bar where it is "Panty Night."

The Hatch-ettes are young women who admit to swearing like stevedores. After they were tossed out of an establishment delightfully called the Crobar, they got into a tussle with cops and bouncers (one was known as "Tattooed Tony") and blistered the paint off nearby light poles with their cursing.

I admire this in a young woman. It speaks well of her self-confidence and upbringing. My daughter, who is the same age as Elizabeth Hatch, had her school bus privileges suspended because of foul language. She was only in kindergarten, and she merely called her driver "Mr. Baloney Face." But it was a promising start. I keep her framed suspension notice on my wall.

// posted by David Drake @ 4:31 PM 0 comments