Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Stress Tests "Too Optimistic"
Another datapoint for the annals of regulatory opacity: the Congressional Oversight Panel points out in its report on the stress tests that Treasury never released the results of the baseline-scenario test.
Even though the “baseline” scenario was likely too optimistic, publishing the results from that scenario would have improved transparency and enabled private analysts, who can play an important role in the way information is used, to present their own predictions and analyses.
If we knew how much difference there was between the baseline test and the more-adverse test, then analysts could at least do a rough-and-ready extrapolation to any forecast they liked. With only the one set of datapoints, however, it becomes impossible to tell how sensitive banks’ solvency is to changes in macroeconomic variables.
Gee, the stress tests were "too optimistic." Quick everyone, get your Rose Colored glasses, put them on, and wow, the difference! The World of Obama sure looks peachy, doesn't it? Here, have a glass of Kool-Aid and a delicious and nutritious Obama Shit Sandwich, you'll feel ever better. Chant "Hope and Change" and "Yes, we can," and kneel before Dear Leader His Excellency in all his glory, for he is the Messyiah. He is our lord. He is our savior.
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