Thursday, June 26, 2008
Poll Shows Obama Way Ahead
Or Does It?
Democratic White House hopeful Barack Obama has built a yawning 12-point national lead over Republican John McCain, according to a new poll published by the Los Angeles Times Tuesday.
The LA Times/Bloomberg survey conducted over the weekend said that in a head-to-head contest, Obama had 49 percent support against 37 percent for McCain.
What fewer people know is that the poll was conducted using skewed data. From the Boston Globe:
In a memo, [McCain pollsters point out] that 39 percent of respondents in the poll identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent as independents, and 22 percent as Republicans, leaving 12 percent unaccounted.
What's surprising about the poll is that Obama wasn't leading McCain by triple digits considering how those who were polled were so weighted to the Left.
The Gallup Poll has McCain and Obama in a dead-heat, at 45% - vs - 45%.
The Rasmussen Poll states the following:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When "leaners" are included, Obama leads 49% to 45%.
The race has remained very stable in recent weeks. Without leaners, Obama’s support has stayed between 45% and 47% for fourteen straight days. With leaners, he has stayed between 48% and 50% for twenty straight days.
As for McCain, his support has been at 40% or 41% on eighteen of the last twenty-one days. Twice, he inched up a point above that range and once he slipped a point below. With leaners, McCain’s support has stayed between 42% and 45% every day since Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential Nomination.
Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 43%. However, in findings that mirror an “enthusiasm gap” found in other polls, 32% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while just 16% are that upbeat about McCain. Opposition to Obama is also stronger--26% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion of the presumptive Democratic nominee while just 19% say the same about his Republican counterpart.
What do we learn from this? Well, mostly that the two most reputable, accurate and trustworthy polls are, in fact, the Gallup and Rasmussen Organizations.
If you think that the 26% who hold a "Very Unfavorable" opinion of Obama will not come into play, and work for McCain, then I have lake shore property to sell you at very reasonable prices...on the planet Mercury.
Obama's numbers have nowhere to go but down over the next four months. And they will drop. And when they drop, they are going to plummet like a brick tossed into a lake. This will happen because The Illinois Muslim - and we see this happening before our eyes - is getting more and more confident and with that comes his arrogance. His feeling of being entitled to the White House, no different than his "can't we just be done with this primary process" attitude he had when his battle against Hillary Clinton went on and on.
The Obama Balloon will pop and deflate. I can't wait to hear the screams of agony from his Cult Followers as they gnash their teeth, kick their feet, whining and crying when the reality of his loss smacks them upside their heads.
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