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Saturday, January 26, 2008

South Carolina Dem Primary Prediction

South Carolina has its primary for the Communists - I mean the Dems, how could I confuse the two - today, Saturday.

The State says - among other things - that John The Sissy Edwards is making a move:

    With only a day left before Saturday’s S.C. Democratic presidential primary, the former U.S. senator from North Carolina and S.C. native is making a move, tracking polls suggest.

    While still in third, Edwards’ poll numbers have been rising since Monday’s Myrtle Beach debate.

    One new poll says Edwards is threatening U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York for second place in South Carolina. However, no poll finds him threatening the S.C. leader, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois.

    [...]

    ... a less favorable poll for Edwards — from McClatchy/MSNBC, released Thursday — showed Obama favored by 38 percent of S.C. voters, Clinton at 30 percent and Edwards at 19 percent. An Ebony/Jet magazine poll was similar. It has Obama at 37 percent, Clinton at 27 percent and Edwards at 15 percent.

    [...]

    According to the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll, Edwards has gained 4 percentage points since Wednesday and is the choice of 19 percent of likely voters. Obama maintains the S.C. lead at 39 percent but his lead is down 4 percentage points over Clinton from a day earlier.

    [...]

    Zogby poll also found Obama’s support among black voters has slipped by 9 points, to 56 percent. Edwards’ support among African-Americans, previously negligible, had risen to 5 percent.

    [...]

    Edwards also is up in a SurveyUSA Election Poll taken Tuesday and Wednesday.

    He claimed 22 percent of the vote, up 7 percentage points from a week ago. Obama continued to lead at 45 percent, unchanged from last week, and Clinton tallied 29 percent, down 7 percentage points.

Now go back and read the above excerpts again. Why on earth would anyone - post election - claim that pre or exit polling results are to be taken as gospel when many of the polls above have such variances? "Obama leading at 45 percent by SurveyUSA" compared to the Ebony/Jet poll with "Obama at 37 percent, Clinton at 27 percent and Edwards at 15 percent."

If you live by the polls, pre-polling, exit polling - whatever - and think that the polls are reflective of the accuracy of voting, or that voters are being honest with the pollsters, I have ocean front property in Saskatchewan to sell you where the temperature year round never dips below 76 degrees. Honest!

Okay, here's my prediction for South Carolina:

Hillary Clinton wins steals the primary, coming in with around 39%. Obama takes second, no more than 3-6 points behind Hillary. Edwards is third, 8-10 points behind Obama.

Nothing is going to stop Hillary from stealing the White House in November. Nothing.

©2008

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Comments:
Hey, that thing with the words "Communists" and "Dems" was really, really funny. And they say you right-wingers don't have a sense of humor and aren't very clever. Boy, you've proved them wrong. You're blog is satire, right? I mean, you don't really believe all this crap you write, do you? Well, keep up the good work.
 
Hello Anony commenter.

I am THRILLED you think the "Communists" and "Dems" thing is a joke, but really, it's not. There is no difference between them. Tomato - To-mah-to - just like that kind of thing.

You're not Al Franken, are you?

I will keep up the good work, too! Thanks for noticing.
 
anonymous is proof liberals have no sense of humor and don't understand it when they recognize it.
 
AMEN, EC - Amen!
 
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